I first heard of Viral Interference only two days ago, and have had little time to think about it. However, in this article, primarily about Sweden and Norway (here) I used figures from Bob Klein. He was pointing out that several mere Counties in the US had higher death rates than many whole countries.
His figures are easily verified on worldometer.info. He rightly concludes that this needs an explanation. His own suggestion was what he calls “over-vaccination” in Western countries. Still thinking about the Norway-Sweden comparison, I tried to find figures on flu vaccination of the elderly by country, since the flu vaccine is the prime candidate for interference with Coronavirus.
The best data I could find was a graph in a European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) document here.The most recent data are for 2018.
I first compared Norway and Sweden. The former had about 35% vaccination, while Sweden had 50%. I figured this MIGHT go some way to explain the Swedish-Norwegian difference.
I then compared death rates for the countries with a high vaccination rate – Italy and higher – and those with a low rate – Slovakia and lower, that are shown on the graph. The average death rate for the high vaccination countries was 353 per million, while for the low vaccination ones it was only 24. (All data taken from worldometer.info. Details below.) This is an astonishing variation in death rates in two sets of countries chosen only by their propensity to vaccinate old people for flu. I’m no statistician, but there is surely something here for statisticians to look at.
I updated the article already referred to, then did some more googling. I picked up a very hard-to-find article from The BMJ (here.) It refers to “a randomized placebo-controlled trial in Hong Kong children found that flu shots increased the risk of noninfluenza viral ARIs fivefold.” An ARI is an Acute Respiratory Infection. Covid19 is a noninfluenza virus. The BMJ is not a conspiracy site, it’s the British Medical Journal, founded in 1840.
We may be looking at the key reason why New York and other Western areas have such high mortality. A fivefold increased risk in children! Children are barely affected by Covid, but the old and frail are. Could their risk be increased tenfold? Or even a hundredfold? And could they be the main reservoir of infection for the rest of the population? These are questions we need answers to. And we need them now.
I emailed Dr Allen Cunningham, who authored the BMJ article, pointing him to this article. He has kindly done some further research and statistical analysis of 18 EU countries. In a private email to me, his conclusion is that 48% of the variation in death rates between these countries is due to the harmful side effects of flu vaccination. He wrote:
prompted by your viral interference article I went to Worldometer, the ECDC influenza vaccine article from December 2018, and our CDC’s data on US vaccine uptake. Attached is a scatterplot showing the correlation between influenza vaccine coverage and Covid-19 death rates. The regression/correlation coefficient (r) = 0.692, and is statistically significant (P<0.001). r-squared =0.48, indicating that 48% of the variation in Covid-19 death rates is explained by variations in influenza vaccine coverage.
This is a pretty casual exercise, but it confirms what your article suggests, and supports previous articles associating flu shots with increased risk from noninfluenza viruses. I’ve attached a photo of the scatterplot.
Vaccine-induced viral interference is real, and it is having a major impact. This is yet more confirmation that a vaccine is not the best route to herd immunity. The natural route through contact is.
Dr Cunningham is a retired pediatrician who informally acquired a working knowledge of epidemiology and statistics in the course of his professional life.
Fatality Data taken from worldometer.info on 4th May 2020